Ag exports over the last calendar year could be called a mixed bag
On the grain side, both corn and soybeans saw ups and downs, says Chad Hart, Extension grain marketing economist with Iowa State University.
“If we look at the crop year, which is defined as the period between harvest 2022 and harvest 2023, corn was consistently down,” he says. “By the time all was said and done, we were actually down about 800 billion bushels when it comes to corn exports.”
Hart attributes much of that to the lag that occurred after the COVID-19 slowdown.
“We had that boom,” he says. “Once everyone got out the house, they went shopping, and we had strong exports for two years through 2022. It hasn’t been the same since.”
Some of that can also be blamed on a more sluggish market with China, he says.
“Under the Phase 1 deal in 2020 and 2021, China committed to purchasing certain levels of U.S. grain,” Hart says. “That went off the books in 2022, and they went shopping elsewhere.”
He says the 2023 corn crop started out in a big hole when it came to exports, but Hart says those are starting to ramp up. He says about half of the gap has been closed due to strong demand, primarily through gains in Mexico, South Korea and Columbia.
He says exports to China are still down but are now closer to the five-year average for overall corn sales.
“Already in the 2023 crop year we have sold 1.3 billion bushels of corn internationally,” Hart says.
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Soybeans have struggled right along with corn, he says, although the timing was different, as was the size of the gap. Hart says issues with the soybean export market did not develop until the first part of 2023, with a gap of 200 to 300 billion bushels.
“The soybean market is starting to close the gap but is still below our five-year average,” he says. “The Chinese market is still significantly different, with Brazil taking advantage of the record crop last year and boosting its business to China. There is definitely a good opportunity for Brazil to gain market share.”
Pork exports were better in 2023 than anyone expected, says Lee Schulz, Iowa State University Extension livestock marketing economist. He says the USDA forecast 2023 exports as much the same as 2022.
“We were able to maintain our level of production despite the fact that pork producers lost money in 2023,” Schulz says. “Global supplies have really tightened, which allowed us to maintain our sales to countries such as South Korea and Canada as well as developing markets such as the Philippines, Vietnam and the Dominican Republic.”
Schulz says exports to China, Mexico and Japan were all down in 2023.
He says without a decent export market, things could have gotten much worse for producers due to the low prices in 2023.
Schultz says the USDA is forecasting pork exports to be up 1.5 to 2% in 2024.
“I think that’s a pretty conservative forecast,” he says. “The real wild card in all this is China.”
Beef exports were down 15% in 2023 by volume, but the decrease in value was not as steep, primarily because of higher prices. Schulz says cattle numbers will continue to decline over the next several years, but he still expects exports to be in line with historical averages.
He says the U.S. exports 13% of its beef production.
Schulz says demand has taken a step back from 2020 and 2021, and there is still some uncertainty for beef exports, but there’s also potential for growth in several markets around the globe.